The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, along with the escalating strikes between Israel and Iran, are reshaping the geopolitical realities of the Middle East. These crises are redefining the regional strategic landscape, posing critical tests to American leadership and its capacity to resolve such conflicts. The future regional balance of power will largely depend on the outcomes of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as other regional hotspots transformed by ongoing hostilities.
As part of the preparations for the 11th Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate (ADSD), convened by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC) from November 10-12, 2024, experts participating in the ADSD outline their interventions on how these conflicts are altering the regional landscape.
Resetting the New Balance of Power in the Middle East
October 7 has fundamentally reshaped the regional strategic landscape. It has done so by:
1) Reviving the Palestinian issue as a central axis in regional politics;
2) Escalating the direct confrontation between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah;
3) Testing American leadership and its capacity to resolve regional crises; and
4) Complicating Israel’s relations with the Arab world and Turkiye.
While Israel’s effort to restore deterrence and security remain uncertain, its ability and willingness to inflict pain on its enemies at all costs has put Iran and the “axis of resistance” on notice, forcing them onto the defensive.
The emergence of a new regional balance of power will depend on the outcome of the Gaza conflict and whether it is possible to:
1) Establish a credible path for Gaza’s reconstruction and a broader roadmap toward a Palestinian state;
2) Implement US plans for restoring stability on the Lebanon-Israel border;
3) Achieve progress in US-Iran negotiations regarding the nuclear issue; and
4) Determine the fate of the Netanyahu government in Israel.
* Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.
Gaza War’s Impact on Palestinian Statehood Efforts
Recent developments, particularly the Saudi-led international coalition, have reinvigorated discussions on Palestinian statehood. Growing international recognition, exemplified by support from nations like Ireland and Spain, coupled with the UN vote for full Palestinian membership, marks a pivotal shift toward actionable steps. This momentum represents a move away from endless negotiations to implementing tangible solutions on the ground, backed by multilateral diplomacy.
The Gaza war has brought the issue of Palestinian sovereignty into sharper focus, emphasizing the urgent need for a political resolution. While the two-state solution enjoys broad support, it faces challenges, especially concerning borders and Israeli control. Despite this, the coalition, guided by Saudi Arabia’s initiative, offers a viable path forward.
October 7 did not stop normalization efforts but rather underscored that normalization is crucial to any peaceful settlement in the broader Middle East. Palestinian unity remains essential to advancing statehood, as internal divisions continue to weaken the cause. The UAE, as part of this international effort, can leverage its diplomatic influence to help ensure Palestinian statehood is realized within a framework of multilateral diplomacy and international law. Any future Palestinian state necessitates an inclusive approach where nobody is left behind, with proper representation for youth and women.
* Associate Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution at the Arab American University Palestine (AAUP).
Ongoing Gaza War: Potential Outcomes and Opportunities
Wars can sometimes lead to peace. Our efforts should focus on transforming challenges posed by ongoing conflicts into opportunities, as illustrated by global and regional examples:
– Globally, World War II led to the creation of the UN , EU, IMF, World Bank and UNESCO.
– In the Mideast, the 1973 October War led to the Camp David accords and the Gulf war to the Madrid peace conference.
– In Southeast Asia, the Vietnam War, along with the conflicts in Laos and Cambodia, ultimately led to the formation of ASEAN.
The complex nature of the 5th Gaza war presents challenges for analysis. Studying an active conflict is like having a blind man measure the dimensions of a melting ice cube – constantly shifting and challenging to grasp. Factors affecting this include:
- The global implications of Iranian Nuclear capabilities.
- A changing Arab World in the post-Arab Spring era.
- New polarization in the Middle East, including the emergence of three distinct trends: chaotic youth movements, the Muslim Brothers model and reformist agendas.
- The shock of October 7, which disrupted the trajectory of US-led efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
- The distinctive nature of the Gaza war, involving both state and non-state actors.
Lessons from regional approaches show that sustainable peace and prosperity in the region often require broad, cooperative frameworks, as seen with the EU and ASEAN.
As witnessed in the Arab-Israeli conflict, face-to-face interactions between Arabs and Israelis have historically been crucial to achieving peace.
* Member of the Egyptian Senate and Chairman of the Advisors Council of The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies.
A Substantial Shift in American Policy Toward the Region Appears Unlikely
Despite the talk of an American “pivot” away from the Gulf and the Middle East and Gulf states’ concerns of such a shift, it is unlikely that the US policy in the region will change significantly, regardless of the election outcome. The past three American presidents all came into office saying that they were going to de-emphasize the Middle East in the US foreign policy agenda. None of them did.
The new administration will face two major questions:
- How should the US approach an Iran led by a president interested in better relations with the West?
- What strategy should the US adopt in addressing the aftermath of the multi-front conflict that began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and has since expanded to include Lebanon, Syria and direct strikes between Israel and Iran?
* Professor of International Affairs and John H. Lindsey ’44 Chair at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University.
China Can Act as an Honest Broker in the Middle East
In the coming decades, China’s primary focus will remain on economic development, despite rising competition led by the US. China’s growing strength will help counterbalance some of this pressure. Notably, China has kept its defense spending below 2% of GDP for decades, in stark contrast to NATO’s 2% target, signaling Beijing’s confidence in its strategic approach.
With regards to initiatives like AUKUS, they are not expected to make a big difference in the current state of affairs. AUKUS is a military alliance between America and its allies. It may continue to grow to some extent, but it will not be a game changer in the region. Even in a worst-case scenario of a China-US conflict, only a handful of countries would likely to offer full support to the US in the Indo-Pacific. The worst fear of countries in the region, including American allies, is to pick sides. The Quad’s growth is limited as its focus remains broad and loosely defined, making it unlikely to evolve into a military alliance. India, for instance, values strategic independence and would be reluctant to bind itself in such a way.
China is a rising global power with increasing influence. As a result, issues that may initially seem unrelated to China will end up having a lot to do with China, such as the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East. People expect China to act as an honest broker. China’s successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia marks a shift toward a more proactive approach in its diplomacy, moving away from a traditionally conservative stance.
* Senior Fellow, Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University, Beijing.
Challenge of Ensuring Safe Transit for Shipping and Trade
Recent regional developments and the proliferation of new weaponry to non-state actors have changed the dynamics in securing maritime routes. Navies are struggling to provide assured access as the asymmetric costs of countering these persistent threats drive up shipping expenses, re-route vessels and disrupt global trade. Without addressing the underlying causes of regional tensions, navies will struggle to maintain safe transit for shipping, particularly now that the ease and impact of disruption have been made so evident.
* President of Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi.
The Emerging Maritime Technological Revolution and ‘Militarization’ of Strategic Waterways
Regional waterways, critical for global trade and energy transport, are becoming increasingly militarized, contested and battlegrounds for power projection by state and non-state actors. Major global powers such as the US and China, alongside regional actors like Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are projecting power through naval deployments, alliances, bases and infrastructure investments, reflecting the growing significance of these waterways in the contest for influence near key chokepoints. The easy access to cheap, unmanned weapons makes the situation worse. We are on the cusp of an unmanned technological revolution at sea.
* Professor of Strategic Studies at the National Defence College, Abu Dhabi .
