Last weekend’s elections offer a first glimpse of a political future beyond the reigning strongman.
By Sinan Ciddi Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Steven A. Cook Council on Foreign Relations
via Foreign Policy
APRIL 4, 2024
Turkish politics is interesting again. For years, Turkey’s opposition was moribund. Under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) had trouble attracting more than 25 percent to 30 percent of voters.
Then suddenly, last weekend, the opposition broke through. It’s not just that the CHP held on to mayoralties in big cities such as Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul, where the sitting mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has established himself as the most dynamic Turkish politician since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was himself mayor in the mid-1990s. Making matters worse for the Turkish leader, the CHP and other parties soundly defeated mayors from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 15 other municipalities.
Just five years ago, the AKP’s orange almost entirely covered Turkey’s local electoral map across a wide belt from east to west and in a mostly uninterrupted swath from north to south in the middle of Anatolia. Now the party controls barely contiguous blots of orange from 15 provinces stretching from the northeast to the central part of the country where it hits a thick wall of CHP red. And despite Erdogan’s best efforts to undermine Kurdish politicians, the purple of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) dominates the southeastern quadrant of Anatolia. The royal blue of the fascist-adjacent Nationalist Movement Party appears as eight disparate splotches across the landscape. Although pictures allegedly tell a thousand words, the Turkish electoral map needs just one: drubbing.
Yet the results of Sunday’s vote were unexpected. Not because the AKP is strong. It is, in fact, a shell of the dynamic party with a compelling vision of Turkey’s future that it once was. That AKP is long gone. Rather, Erdogan and his party have been able to prevail over the last dozen or so years because he has become a practiced and shrewd authoritarian who leveraged the press, the courts, and parliamentary procedure to make it more difficult for the opposition to compete. He also employed a fair amount of intimidation and violence against opponents.
It is a testament to the political fortitude of Turks and the continuing strength of Turkey’s democratic practices—without the country actually qualifying as a democracy—that people still came out in droves last weekend to register their disapproval of Erdogan and the AKP. At least for the moment, Turkish voters have tempered the idea that the current age is one of illiberalism in which non-democratic leaders can leverage seemingly democratic institutions to advance anti-democratic agendas and consolidate their power. Erdogan was at the leading edge of this phenomenon (even before Hungary’s Viktor Orban became the poster boy for electoral authoritarianism) but now confronts the most serious rebuke of his political career. For the first time in many years, without stretching credulity analysts can imagine what a post-AKP Turkey might look like.
It is actually worse for Erdogan than one thinks. While there are plenty of losers in Sunday’s election, there is really only one clear winner: Imamoglu. Imamoglu scored a thumping 51 percent victory against the AKP’s Murat Kurum, who received 39 percent. This result was not, in fact, a race between Imamoglu and Kurum; it was a contest between Imamoglu and Erdogan. In his effort to support Kurum, Erdogan employed every strategy, including sending 17 cabinet ministers to campaign in the city, as well as making numerous appearances himself. The pro-Erdogan media did their best not to provide coverage of Imamoglu out on the hustings. None of this prevented him gaining one out of two votes in a race where more than 8 million citizens voted, however. The mayor’s reelection represents his third consecutive victory (twice in 2019) in contests with Erdogan’s hand-picked candidates and, for the AKP, the most worrying.
Imamoglu is the political rival the Turkish president fears most, and he is the most likely to challenge Erdogan for the presidency, currently scheduled for 2028. His 51 percent result far exceeds the national support for the CHP. It is hard not to wonder, had Imamoglu been at the top of the opposition’s ticket during the May 2023 presidential election instead of the hapless Kilicdaroglu, how different Turkey might look today. It is plausible that last Sunday, President Imamoglu would have congratulated the opposition on a strong showing. Imamoglu’s victory over Kurum was about the same percentage difference (~10 percent) that Imamoglu was projected to win the presidency had he been the nominee to challenge Erdogan.
Whether Imamoglu will be in a position to face off against Erdogan remains an open question, though. Imamoglu could be banned from holding political office if a frivolous lawsuit that a prosecutor filed against him in 2019 is upheld by an appeals court. If the court upholds the lower court’s decision, it will prevent Imamoglu from running against Erdogan or remaining mayor of Istanbul.
Given the vehemence with which Erdogan had vowed to retake Istanbul and Ankara ever since those cities were lost to the opposition, it is shocking that Erdogan failed. But it is not necessarily surprising. The AKP fielded terrible mayoral candidates who lacked charisma and were perceived to be out of touch with voter sentiment. To compensate for the AKP’s C-team lineup, Erdogan assumed a role of campaigner-in-chief and attempted to be the candidate behind the candidate in many mayoral races. Powerful may be Erdogan’s rhetorical skills, but they could not make up for the crushing economic conditions felt by citizens, notably consumer inflation over 120 percent.
Behind the tough economic times, it seems that after almost 22 years, Erdogan and the AKP have worn out their welcome. Long gone on the stump is Erdogan’s positive vision of Turkey’s future. In its place are a bevy of threats bellowing to crowds that if they did not vote for the AKP, then he would suspend local government services. The bad candidates, the terrible economy, and Erdogan’s bellicosity all came crashing down on Sunday. Not only did Imamoglu romp in Istanbul, but the CHP incumbent in Ankara, Mansur Yavas, crushed his AKP opponent by almost 30 points, and the opposition turned over what were thought to be AKP strongholds throughout the country.
Can Erdogan do anything to turn this grim picture around? It seems unlikely. A man who has always rebounded from political downturns, like the coup attempt (2016) and the Gezi Park protests (2013), appears to be politically weakened beyond repair. In the early hours of April Fools’ Day, Erdogan delivered a concession speech in Ankara, which many TV channels switched away from, as Imamoglu began his victory speech in Istanbul at the same time. While Erdogan looked deflated and worn, Imamoglu was full of energy, addressing a jubilant sea of voters. Yet Erdogan was not prepared to take the defeat lying down. Just hours after the election, sought to block the winner in the city of Van’s mayoral race==from the Kurdish-based DEM Party—in favor of the AKP candidate who lost badly. Violence broke out until the High Election Board demonstrated atypical spine in the face of Erdogan’s pressure and recognized the rightful winner.
Going forward, there are not many good options for Erdogan. If he taps the court to ban Imamoglu, this could result in a massive public backlash, well beyond the boundaries of Istanbul. Similarly, removing Imamoglu does not alter the CHP-dominated electoral map of Turkey that has appeared. True, these were local elections and not necessarily determinative of a national race, but Erdogan would not risk an early presidential race now. Attempting to reset the AKP to its factory settings and returning to 2002 will not work. The entire AKP brand is tarnished by corruption, arrogance, and Erdogan’s authoritarianism. Never count Erdogan out, but it does seem that Turkey is on the cusp of a new era. Erdogan will cling to office, but it seems clear that the future now lies with Imamoglu.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
